We’ll be teasing two lively underdogs in Week 13

NFL teasers have been running purely as of late. However, this upcoming slate for Week 13 presents a challenge with limited options available. During weeks like this, you can work with what we have or skip it altogether. A bet is often not as good.

As a reminder, here are some general guidelines to follow if you’re betting on NFL teasers to keep your risk in check.

  • Stick to the six-point teasers (you need to win more consistently to make up for the higher price).

  • Keep it to a two-team teaser (the more pieces you add, the higher the risk).

  • Aim for games with a lower total (the higher the points expected, the higher the variance involved).

  • Joker through the key numbers three and seven (this approach is at the heart of all proven winning strategies).

Teaser legs to avoid

There are some games this week with 1 or 7 point spreads. The impulse is to want to tease a 7-point underdog or tease a favorite down to -1. I say avoid these options because the likelihood of a push increases by having two legs. One, check if your book counts a push as a loss. Two, avoid buying the half point at (-130) simply because the juice becomes too hard to beat. These games this week include current lines from:

Steelers -1 vs Falcons, 42

Lions -1 against Jaguars, 51

Browns -7 to the Texans, 47.5

Seahawks -7 to Rams, 40.5

Raiders -1 vs. Loaders, 49.5

Week 13 teaser options in progress

Giants +8.5 vs. Commanders, 40

Bengals +8.5 vs. Chiefs, 53

Unconventional week 13 teaser option

Jets +9 to Vikings, 44.5

Following the traditional teaser Wong uses options that cross over through the key numbers of three and seven. Getting a spread at +3 or better is more valuable in the long run by playing as a solo bet instead of tying into a teaser due to the volatility involved in correctly selecting two games for a winner. However, if a 3pt spread is tied to a higher juice (say -115 or -120) and has the potential to fall from a 3pt spread to 2.5, then the +3 becomes more valuable at +9 rather than +8.5. The Jets right now are +3 at one price (-115).

Week 13 NFL teaser to bet: Jets +9 and Bengals +8.5

The Jets have a great defense, allowing 27 yards per drive, third best in the league. Additionally, they rank eighth in pressing speed, which could be a terrible matchup for Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins. In a similar matchup against Dallas, Cousins ​​was sacked seven times and threw zero touchdowns just two weeks ago.

Offensively, the Jets now have some life after replacing Zach Wilson with Mike White. In a one-game champion this season, against the Bears, White averaged 11.3 yards per game for three scores. Chicago is a poor defense, 12th against the pass. The Vikings died last in the NFL, allowing a then-record 276 passing yards per game. Minnesota’s defense is exploitable, as demonstrated last week by Mac Jones and the Patriots. Jones had his best performance of the season, 382 passing yards and two touchdowns.

Backing up the Bengals in a high total game comes with volatility. However, the Bengals have the second best defense behind the Broncos, forcing more field goals than touchdowns. It’s less about the defense and more about Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow being able to keep up with Patrick Mahomes. Burrow has been without his top receiver in the Ja’Marr Chase, who may return to the lineup this week. With Burrow trailing center, the Bengals are 2-0 against the Chiefs, throwing six touchdowns to just one interception. Love Mahomes but Burrow will keep this competitive.

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