The freezing weather will affect many games, such as Bills-Bears

At this point in the NFL season, it’s best to check the weather forecast before firing a bet.

And while bad weather is part of the equation for many outdoor games in late December, this looks to be one of the wildest weekends of the season.

Here are the worst predictions for week 16, from ESPN’s Field Yates:

It’s not funny. Weather concerns have been a major reason we have a ridiculously low total for an NFL game. Saints at Browns is at 32.5. It’s rare but understandable given the predictions of low temperatures, high winds and possibly even precipitation.

With every game over (and maybe even the Bengals-Patriots game, which could be in the sub-20s), we’ll need to consider the weather and how it affects those teams. It’s a pretty big question for the Buffalo Bills.

Under normal conditions, there wouldn’t be much concern about the Bills beating the Chicago Bears. The Bills are the 8.5 point favorites on BetMGM. Buffalo is still likely to win, but its pass-first offense won’t be happy playing in awful weather. Here is the National Weather Service’s winter storm warning, which runs Thursday through Saturday morning: “Snow and blowing snow producing occasional white-out conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches. Wind gusts expected up to 50 mph. Wind chill 25 to 35 below zero expected.”

While it’s not so bad at Saturday’s noon kickoff, it’s not going to be good. The Bills want to pass the ball. They have the third-highest-than-expected passing rate in the NFL; Bears have the lowest PROE. No matter how strong Josh Allen’s arm is, if the winds are blowing 40 miles an hour in 10-degree weather as predicted, the Bills aren’t going to want to pass the ball.

Maybe the Bills win a grind-it-out game, but I’ll pick the Bears and the points in anticipation of a bad low scoring game. There will be some bad games this weekend. Make sure you take one last look at that prediction before placing that bet.

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills will be dealing with more inclement weather this week.  (Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills will be dealing with more inclement weather this week. (Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)

Here are the NFL vs. Spread picks for Week 16, with point spreads from BetMGM:

Jaguars (+2) on Jet

He’s primarily a hottest team pick and much better quarterback, although as stated in today’s Daily Sweat, there are good reasons for the Jets as well.

Browns (-3) on Saints

This game is going to be brutal. Just remember before you take that or any other under due to bad weather: Horrible conditions also lead to interceptions, fumbles, bad punts, and other errors that lead to short runs and rushing touchdowns. As for the team, I’m surprised the Browns are just field goal favorites. Cleveland seems built for this type of game.

Titans (-3.5) on Texans

The Titans cannot afford to take this lightly. The jaguars are right behind them. But Ryan Tannehill’s ankle injury is definitely one reason the line is shifting towards Houston. The spread has moved enough that I’m fine fading a Texan team that is playing tough but is still very bad.

Seahawks (+10) on Chiefs

The Seahawks have a little more rest and will be happy to be up against a much smoother defense than the 49ers, who bottled them up last week. The Seahawks have faced some tough defenses during their slump. The Chiefs are clearly able to cover this big spread, but I’ll pick a Seahawks team that really needs wins.

Vikings (-4) on Giants

There is some concern about the motivation of the Vikings. They’re pretty much stuck with the #1 seed. 2 or no. 3. It’s a strange place to be with three games left in the season. But I also think that the hatred of Vikings has gone too far. The Commanders were 4.5 point favorites over the Giants last week, and now the Vikings are just -4 against New York? The Vikings aren’t great and as everyone who knows the term “regression” has already told you, they aren’t as good as their 11-3 record. But they’re not that bad either.

Look ahead, place for Bengalis? They take the bills next week at home for “Monday Night Football”. After that there is a game against the Ravens which will most likely be the AFC North championship game. Meanwhile, the Patriots have to steal one after giving away a game last week to the Raiders. And it’s a week where everyone is canceling New England, and we know what happens then. This seems set up for an upset.

Lions (-2.5) on Panthers

You will see a debate on #GamblingTwitter if there is such a thing as a trap line, but if they exist, that is it. Who is the Panthers taking in this game, with the spread within a field goal? Carolina had played better, but played poorly last week against the Steelers. The Lions have won five of six and know they have to keep winning to make the playoffs. I should take the Panthers just to be contrarian, but it’s hard to back them.

Falcons (+7) on Ravens

Will Lamar Jackson play? He has not trained and this does not bode well. We’ve seen the Ravens offense with Tyler Huntley and it’s not good. The weather will be awful and always running the ball suits the Falcons anyway. I don’t know how you could catch the Ravens giving a touchdown, especially if Jackson is out again.

49ers (-7) on commanders

Like the Vikings before it, it’s hard to fathom the 49ers’ motivation these past three weeks. Maybe seed no. 2 is important to the 49ers – looks like Kyle Shanahan will keep his foot on the accelerator — but San Francisco knows it’s nearly stuck in the second or third seed with three weeks left. I’ll give the 49ers defense overwhelming the Commanders a chance, but I see coverage from the more motivated Washington team.

Eagles (+6) on Cowboys

For a while it looked like this was going to be one of the games of the year. But after Dallas lost last week, the Cowboys are 94% of the No. 5 seed in the NFC and the Eagles are 97.9% of the No. 1 seed, according to Football Outsiders playoff odds. In other words, there’s not much to play for. Jalen Hurts’ injury also changes things, of course. I believe the Eagles will rally around Gardner Minshew, who may be the best backup quarterback in the league. Philly is really good at the quarterback position. He’ll take the Eagles.

Steelers (-2.5) on Raiders

Another game against bad weather. Shall we take the Vegas team instead of the Steelers? Not exactly. I’m not sure how much the death of Franco Harris just before his number is retired motivates the current Steelers, but it’s going to be an emotional crowd. I assume Mike Tomlin too, with his appreciation of Harris and Steelers history, will remind his team of what Harris has meant to the city and the franchise as he celebrates the 50th anniversary of the Immaculate Reception. It could be a tough night for the Raiders.

Packers (+4) on Dolphins

Maybe it’s unwise to accept the Packers after they beat the Bears and Rams. But they look better. And the Packers know this is their season. If they beat Miami, they have two home games to go and may have a realistic hope of making the playoffs. Miami looked good against Buffalo last week, so this pick isn’t a Dolphins fade. I just think we see the best the Packers have to offer.

Broncos (-2.5) on Rams

Just think, when this game was put on the schedule it looked like a fun game. I trust the Broncos defense in this game. And this is all.

Cardinals (+7.5) on buccaneers

No, I don’t want to pick a Cardinals team led by Trace McSorley. But buccaneers are bad. They beat the Rams and Saints with last-second touchdowns in games they should have lost, and if they had lost those two games they would have been 1-8 in their last nine games. Now should I make more than one touchdown with them on the road? I can not do that. But to be clear, this is a “just because I pick every game” selection. Stay away.

Colts (+4.5) on Chargers

Can Nick Foles spark the Colts? The QB change can’t hurt. And wouldn’t it be right for the Chargers to blow this game? I take the points.

Last week: 7-9

Season to date: 117-102-3

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