Tesla’s early 2023 delivery numbers may be a disappointment: analyst

Tesla trading may be ready for a few more tires blown out of the gate in 2023.

The EV maker is expected to report fourth-quarter delivery and production figures just after the new year, and they could be a disappointment, Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner warned in a new client note.

Before the release, Rosner cut his estimates for Tesla deliveries, sales and profits. Rosner sees fourth-quarter earnings to come in at $1.05 a share, below current analyst forecasts of $1.24.

The auto analyst says the estimate cuts reflect some economic weakness in China, as well as the postponement of first-quarter deliveries in the US by some consumers to take advantage of the Inflation Reduction Act’s EV incentives.

Shares of Tesla have plunged nearly 70% since their high on Jan. 3 this year. The stock is down more than 34% so far this month alone.

Most of Tesla’s investor losses started after CEO Elon Musk offered to buy Twitter in April, a deal that closed in late October and is perhaps just as worrying among investors as slowing sales global.

Those leaks returned aggressively in December on concerns that Musk’s chaotic leadership on Twitter will hurt Tesla.

Rosner isn’t alone on Wall Street with reservations about Tesla’s fundamentals going into 2023, excluding the sideshow that Musk and Twitter have become.

“It’s very concerning with the weakness we’re seeing in China,” Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan said on Yahoo Finance Live (video above). “We’re seeing an increase in incentives and sales aren’t actually increasing there. E [a] the main concern is, will we start seeing this in the US and Europe? Is this just kind of the early days of weakening demand? And I think that’s really the biggest concern of large institutional investors.”

To that end, Tesla said on its website Wednesday that it will offer $7,500 off Model 3 and Model Y vehicles delivered in the United States in December.

Tesla shares are down more than 8% in Thursday’s session.

The Tesla logo and Elon Musk silhouette are seen in this illustration taken December 19, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

The Tesla logo and Elon Musk silhouette are seen in this illustration taken December 19, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

Brian Sozzi is an editor-at-large and anchor at Yahoo Finance. Follow Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and go LinkedIn.

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