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Program-adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, or aFPA, is 4for4’s answer to biased statistics. By removing bias, we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an “apples to apples” way. As the season progresses, the data will change. Regardless, aFPA is arguably the best tool out there for getting an edge when using waivers and building lineups.
Another point to make: I could offer players like Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes pretty much every week especially when they face terrible units according to aFPA. This does everyone a disservice, so I’ll do my best to avoid players enrolled in most fantasy leagues.
Here are the best works of the penultimate week of this column, week 16.
Not many games east of the Mississippi River will have good conditions to play. Cold, snow, wind, rain, or a combination of conditions that make being outdoors suboptimal will play a part in week 16. Not this one! Jones gets a closed cap in Minnesota against a team that allowed the Indianapolis Colts to put up 33 points in the first half last week. The Vikings are 31st in aFPA QBs (and 32nd against WRs) and face an offense short on talent but high on coaching acumen. First year head coach Brian Daboll turned rotten fruit into fruitcake, and Jones is one of this week’s beneficiaries. The Vikings have allowed opposing QBs to go over 300 passing yards and/or throw for multiple passing touchdowns in every game since Week 5. Jones also has a good rushing floor, surpassing 20 rushing yards in 12 of 14 games .
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. McKinnon’s usage and production has increased over the past three weeks. His fight against Seattle could separate him from Isia Pacheco for the rest of the fantasy and NFL playoffs. Seattle allows the second most schedule-appropriate fantasy points to running backs, which is helped by giving up an average of six receptions per game at the position. McKinnon had 17 receptions in the last two weeks, due in part to injuries at the WR position. Also with Kadarius Toney back and Mécole Hardman expected to return this week, it’s clear Mahomes trusts the veteran RB. McKinnon is putting up with it Austin Ekeler-like numbers despite being a wire waiver, and the Chiefs offense is operating on a different level yet again.
Amun-Ra San Brown it’s a weekly block, but it’s some of the depth receivers that deserve FLEX consideration. Carolina is ranked #30 in WR aFPA and, aside Jaycee Horn, is missing in the secondary. Even with Horn playing at Pro Bowl level, he can’t shut down/slow down the receivers by himself. Carolina comes under heavy fire on the passing game, leading the defense to allow 14.14/158.29/0.79 per game for the position. The Panthers allowed five Steelers receivers to catch a pass in Week 15 and allowed three Seahawks wideouts to get at least five receptions, 60 yards and a touchdown in Week 14. DJ Chark, Josh Reynolds and even Jameson Williams you deserve to be the last player in your lineup.
The Buccaneers offense is not an ideal situation to target unnamed players Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but when cardinals are on the agenda, it’s okay to get excited. Otton has played multiple snaps each week since the team’s Week 11 bye and subbed Cameron Brate as TE1. Otton has been feast or famine since his farewell, racking up 0, 5, 10 and 1 goals over the last month. Even as a low-end TE1 option this week, Otton’s lead could finish with him in the top five in the position. Arizona allowed 12 double-digit games to finish tight as a defense ranked 32nd in TE aFPA. The upside of the touchdown is also enticing. Juwan Johnson and George Kittle each had two TD games against the Cardinals, and the Saints added a third tight end TD against Arizona when Taysom Hill actually ran a few routes. The Chiefs are the other offense to score more TE touchdowns.
Tennessee has seen a decline in sack-per-game percentage and sacks since 2021, but has been productive at home. Their 5.98% sack rate rises to 6.48% at home, which isn’t great but worth noting, and the Titans get a Texan offense that allows for more schedule-appropriate fantasy points at defenses. Among the trio of Davis Mills, Kyle Allen and Jeff Driskel, the QB position in Houston is throwing 1.14 TDs and 1.14 INTs per game. Houston has seen a small improvement in sack-per-game percentage since 2021, but if the offense continues to be without Brandin Cook and/or Nico Collinsthe ability for Texan WRs to get open dives with Chris Moore being the only consistent goal left.
If you think the Titans have more coal in your stockings this week, target the Los Angeles Rams in a Christmas Day home game against the Denver Broncos, an offense that has turnovers and gift-wrapped sacks at opposing defenses.
Note: Week 17 will be the last time this column runs.
This story originally appeared on 4for4.com
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Jeff has been playing fantasy sports since 2001. He has covered fantasy and traditional sports at the professional, semi-pro and amateur levels for the better part of a decade. Born in Illinois and currently residing where James Robinson made a name for himself in college, Jeff likes to run (establish it), followed by doing absolutely nothing.