I enter an NFL contest and submit five ATS picks every week. Through 11 weeks, those chosen are 28-27. Picking a single winner can be tough, much less picking five, but it’s quite a challenge. Lines are set spreads released every Wednesday and selections are presented on Friday night.
Here are my five ATS contest picks for Week 12 in the NFL.
Chargers -3 vs. Cardinals
Bolts quarterback Justin Herbert is sixth in the NFL in total passing yards. He was able to do it without having his top receivers in the field in Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. Williams is debatable, but even just having Allen in the lineup is beneficial against a Cardinals defense that is 30th in points allowed per game. Arizona has four wins this season. Those wins were against the Raiders, Panthers, Saints and Rams, four teams with losing records that total 13-29 on the season.
Packer +6.5 against the Eagles
The playbook on how to tackle Philadelphia is out: running the ball. Packers RB Aaron Jones will need a big day to keep Green Bay competitive. It’s possible since Jones rushed for nearly 150 yards against the Bills a few weeks ago. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers could also find some success, considering he seems to play well against NFC East opponents. Rodgers and the Packers suffered a competitive two-point loss to one of the best defenses in the league in Washington followed by a win over Dallas. In those two NFC East meetups, Rodgers threw five touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Jeff Saturday might be a great coach after all. With him, the Indianapolis Colts nearly upset the Eagles last week with a one-point loss as 6.5-point underdogs. Colts quarterback Matt Ryan has had no interceptions in consecutive games, his first this season. Ryan has the opportunity to play on a Steelers secondary that is last in passing yards allowed, 30th in opponent yards per pass attempt, and last in yards allowed per completion. If the Colts’ offensive line can keep Ryan up long enough, there’s a great opportunity to get away with this one.
Bucs -3.5 vs. Browns
I’m driving with the idea that Tom Brady and the Bucs have found something in winning back-to-back games. A key part is the Bucs offense (32nd in rushing yards) perhaps finding a playing field with Rachaad White, who rushed for 105 yards against the Seahawks in Week 10. The Browns in consecutive games have allowed the Miami Dolphins (27th rushing) to rush for 195 yards and the Bills to rush for 171. White has a chance to make a huge play. With Tampa still possessing a top-five defense and now potentially a ground game to complement its offense, I like the Bucs to keep winning.
Jaguars +4 vs. Crows
Let’s take a look at the schedule. The Jaguars have been facing a pretty tough roster since Week 4, starting with the Eagles and facing the Chiefs last week. Jacksonville remained competitive, losing five of those games by a score, holding the Mahomes and Chiefs to 27 points and forcing an interception. The opportunity is here for the jaguars. Despite having a losing record, Jacksonville has a +11 point differential. The Jags remain competitive this week against a Ravens team that is 31st in fourth quarter points allowed.